Defense-Security Threats of Neighboring Countries of the Islamic Republic of Iran On the horizon of the 2025 event (Case study: Iraq)

Identifying the dimensions and elements of the threat that cause instability and fragility in the survival of countries is one of the important and strategic areas of study and operation. The Islamic Republic of Iran, as a geopolitical entity in Southwest Asia with Islamic and revolutionary ideology, is one of the influential poles in its environment on a regional and supra-regional scale. Continuation of Iran's geopolitical depth and influence in the region requires the identification, review and scientific and practical deepening of factors and structures that can challenge the country's geopolitical depths in local, national and regional scales in various ways. Due to such importance, the identification of defense-security threats of neighboring countries of the Islamic Republic of Iran and Iraq as an example has been considered as the aim of the present study. The present study has identified the defense-security threats of Iraq through a mixed method. In this regard, the identification and classification of threat types in the framework of seven dimensions of military, economic, political, social, cyber, technological and environmental and then using the method of trend analysis and scenario writing in 2025 horizon and using SPSS software to estimate The total of the above seven threats has been addressed by Iraq. The findings showed that the surrounding area of ​​western Iran is a relatively safe strategic environment. From a political and economic point of view, Iraq is considered a source of relative threat against the country. Therefore, the environment around western Iran seems to be relatively insecure in terms of strategic threats.